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AUDCAD OUTLOOK
Published: 07/23/2018

AUDCAD

The AUDCAD pair is being driven by geopolitics and macro fundamentals of late. The Oil market is impacting the Canadian dollar with Oil prices ranging around $70.00 and latest headlines over the weekend pitting US President Trump against Iran driving Oil prices from $65.91 to $68.60. The Saudi OPEC governor also helped the price as he said that Saudi Arabia would not flood the market with additional supply. The Canadian retail sales data last week showed a beat with a headline number of 2.0% against 1.0% expected. CPI came in at 2.5% from 2.3% expected. These factors support the CAD. In Australia, the RBA has set the tone for the AUD by holding rates unchanged since mid 2016. The Chinese trade wars and the apparent currency war can influence the AUD as Australia supplies China with raw materials for its economy.

Technically the AUDCAD pair is in a consolidation pattern marked by the Purple trend lines. A break down under 0.97000 would confirm a move lower with a major swing low at 0.96565 being the focus of the initial move. From there support comes in at 0.95550 on the Daily chart provided the 0.96000 level is broken. Resistance for the pair can be found at 0.97846 with a break above 0.98000 confirming the move. A target of 0.98585 provides initial resistance followed by the strongly tested 0.99350 level. A retest of parity seems unlikely in the short term, with the shorts holding control for now.

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