The US will release its monthly Non-farm Payrolls data today at 1:30PM which has a significant impact on markets. The number is expected to show a softening with an expected 191K jobs created from a previous 213K last month. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to tick higher to 0.3% from a previous 0.2% last month. The EURUSD chart is showing a consolidation and sideways range from 1.1500 to 1.1850. The price has move lower towards the bottom of the range in the last few days, after finding resistance at 1.1750, to currently trade at 1.1575.
Support for the pair comes in at 1.1500 and the blue supporting trend line just below. A dip to 1.1400 or 1.1371 sets up a more bearish outlook. A loss of that area of support can see price break 1.1300 and 1.1200 for a test of the 1.1160 area. Resistance can be found at 1.17500 initially and for as long as we hold above 1.1500 a break of 1.1850 could triggers a double bottom pattern with a target of 1.2150. Resistances include 1.2000 and 1.2100 where price has seen profit-taking and sellers stepping in previously.
S&P 500 Index
The US stock markets have been impressively resilient despite the selling in global equities over the last week. Price action has created a floor of support at 2790.5 that has been used as resistance in June. The market turned a bearish start in yesterday’s session into a bullish engulfing candle after the US turned up the heat on China by using the threat of $200 million in additional tariffs. Non-farm payrolls today can have a big impact on this index with a miss to the downside on a weaker expectation putting risk off pressure on markets.
With the bullish trend still intact the next resistance at 2830.5 must be cleared to attempt the recent high at 2848.1 with a failure putting pressure on the trend. A break over that area including the 2850.0 level could see a push for the high around 2877.3. Seasonally August is a difficult month for stocks and with a firm level at 2790.5 to watch, any dip below would change sentiment and potentially setup a retest of the rising blue supporting trend line at 2720.00 Support comes in at 2763.4 followed by 2741.0 where the 100 day moving average is currently positioned.