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GBPCAD & GBPNZD Outlook
Published: 11/16/2018

The GBPCAD pair has fallen from 1.7200 to 1.6800 in yesterday’s trade. Support for the Brexit plan held at cabinet but the parliament has expressed displeasure at the deal and members of the government have tendered their resignations. Support for the pair around 1.6782 will be closely watched with the series of lows around 1.6600 indicating that it is in this area that the battle for control of this pair will be won and lost. A loss of the trend line at 1.6615, followed by the low at 1.6566 may hand control to sellers and send price down to test 1.6280 followed by 1.6000.

Buyers may seek to buy the 1.6600 area and push price back to 1.7000. This is a key area for them, for if it turns to resistance sellers may feel they have the edge. The area also contains the 200 DMA at 1.6956 and the 50 DMA at 1.7000. A break higher may see the entire selloff retraced and the 1.7200 resistance area retested. The 200 DMA at 1.7243 and the 1.7284 November high might prevent advances for buyers but a breakout higher may target 1.7400. Above this level the June high around 1.7778 becomes a target. Beyond 1.7800 the 1.8000 and the March high above 1.8400 may interest traders.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             The GBPNZD weekly chart shows how the pair has broken the supporting trend line at 1.9250, retested the broken line and pushed down under the 1.9000 level. This trend line was formed over a year ago and confirms the move lower from resistance at 2.0500. The next potential support may be found around 1.8617, which is the 2018 low, and a loss of this level may see a sustained move down to the 1.8000 area. Below this level traders may target the 1.7500 or the low from summer 2017 around 1.7413.

Resistance on the weekly chart is now based around the 2018 summer lows at 1.8900. A break back above this area may see a jump to retest the 1.9000 level. From here buyers may attempt to retest the broken trend line with the outcome of this test resulting in buyers or sellers drive price to the next directional move. Buyers would seek to regain the 1.9500 level and push above the lower high at 1.9652. From this move a challenge may be mounted on 2.0000 with a view to surpassing the level and the 100 and 200 week moving averages at 2.0146, in order to open the way to 2.0500.

 

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