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The Week Ahead 06th Aug 2018

This week appears to be much quieter compared to last week’s Central Banks activity and US Unemployment data. The main economic data releases that could shape the week ahead are rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), also Chinese Trade Balance and CPI data and UK GDP reading.

Tuesday 07th Aug at 5.30am Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision and rate statement are scheduled for release. No change to the base rate is expected this time. This data could impact volatility in Australian Equities and also Australian Dollar  AUD currency crosses.

Wednesday 08th Aug at 4.00am Chinese Trade Balance for July is due for release. The expectation for the figure is to show a surplus of $38.75 billion from the previously published $41.61 billion. These figures could increase volatility in Chinese Yuan currency crosses CNH, Australian Dollar AUD currency crosses, and also Asian equity indices.

Wednesday 08th Aug at 10.00pm Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision and monetary policy statement are scheduled for release. No change to the base rate is expected this time. This data could impact volatility in New Zealand Dollar NZD currency crosses.

Thursday 09th Aug at 2.30am Chinese Consumer Price Index CPI  for July is due for release. The expectation for the figure is to show 1.9% YoY unchanged from previously published 1.9%. MoM figure is expected to show an increase of 0.1% from previously published  -0.1%. These figures could impact volatility is Chinese Yuan CNH currency crosses and also Asian equity indices.

Friday 10th Aug at 9.30am Preliminary UK GDP (Q2),  manufacturing and industrial production data for June is due. Monthly GDP reading is expected to show 0.1% from previously published 0.2%,  YoY GDP expectations are for unchanged 1.2%, Manufacturing production is expected to show the increase to 1.9% YoY from previously published 1.1%. while industrial production is expected to rise from -0.4% previously to 0.2%. These figures could impact volatility in UK Equities and also GBP currency crosses.

AUDUSD

Current price action appears to be forming another bearish continuation price pattern. Upside resistance is at 0.7440, Bears appear to be in control below that level targeting initial downside supports at 0.7350 followed by 0.7310 and 0.7250 levels. Alternatively confirmed breakout above 0.7440 resistance and the Daily close higher would negate the outlook targeting additional upside resistances at 0.7473 followed by 0.7500 levels.  

NZDUSD

NZDUSD currency pair is downtrending in daily timeframe currently capped by 20, 50 and 200 Moving averages. Important resistance on the upside is at 0.6780 level. Price action appears Bearish below targeting downside supports at 0.6733 followed by 0.6700 and 0.6650 levels. Alternatively confirmed breakout above current resistance at 0.6780 would negate the Bearish outlook targeting additional upside resistances at 0.6800-0.6835 followed by 0.6900 levels.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD currency pair is in clearly defined downtrend currently capped by multiple moving averages and also long term falling resistance trendline at 1.3100. Price action appears Bearish below targeting downside supports at 1.2950 followed by 1.2900 and 1.2850 levels. Alternatively confirmed breakout above current resistance at 1.3100 would negate Bearish outlook targeting additional upside resistances at 1.3150 followed by 1.3200 levels.

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