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The Week Ahead 16th July 2018

Monday 16th July 18 at 3am China Gross Domestic Product for Quarter 2 numbers will be published, the GDP growth is expected to be 6.7% YoY from 6.8% and 1.6% from 1.4% QoQ. This figure is expected to cause volatility in Chinese equity Indices and also CNH currency crosses. 

Tuesday 17th July at 9.30am UK employment data is due. May unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.3% from previously published 4.2%. May average earnings are also release at the same time and the expectation is for increase to 2.7% from previous 2.5%. This data is expected to impact volatility in UK Equities and also GBP currency crosses. 

Wednesday 18th July at 10.00am Eurozone Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release by Eurostat. This figure captures changes in price of goods and services. Final Year on Year figure is expected to be 2% from previously published 1.9%. This data release impacts volatility in European Equities and also in EUR currency crosses. 

Thursday 19th July at  2.30am Australian employment data for June is due. Current market forecasts are pointing to 18,000 jobs expectation. Previous published number was 12,000 a month earlier. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 5.5% from previously published 5.4%. This data impacts volatility in AUD currency crosses. 

Friday 20th July at 1.30pm, Canadian Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index for June is due for release. Current forecasts are pointing to 2.5% figure for Year on Year, from previous 2.2%, and 0.3% Month on Month from previously published 0.1%. This data is likely to impact volatility in CAD currency crosses.

EURUSD key level to watch is at 1.1700. Confirmed breakout higher could target additional upside resistance initially at 1.1760 followed by 1.1800 and 1.1850 levels. Alternatively is the current resistance at 1.1700 holds Bearish scenario would point to the initial downside support at 1.1600. Confirmed loss could open up the way for the retest of additional downside supports at 1.1554 followed by 1.1500 and 1.1440.

GBPUSD key level to watch is at 1.3300. Confirmed breakout above that level and the Daily close higher could support Bullish reversal scenario as indicated by the posible developing inverted Head & Shoulder pattern. Bullish scenario would point to the upside resistances at 1.3320 followed by 1.3367 and 1.3430-1.3500 levels.  Alternatively if the current selling pressure persists and the 1.3300 resistance level holds then the Bearish scenario is still intact pointing to the downside supports at 1.3285 followed by 1.3100 and 1.3050.

AUDUSD key level to watch is at 0.7447. End of Day price action appears to be bearish below. Confirmed breakout above could target additional upside resistances initially at 0.7500 followed by 0.7545. Current swing lows are offering the initial downside supports at 0.7365 followed by 0.7340 and 0.7300.  

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