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The Week Ahead 27th Aug 2018
Published: 08/26/2018

We begin last week of August by UK Bank Holiday on Monday 27th. The rest of the trading week is very quiet US Gross Domestic Product  (GDP)  and Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data releases will be main points of interest.             

Wednesday 29th Aug at 1.30pm US GDP preliminary for Q2 is forecast to be 4.0% YoY from 4.1%. Personal Consumption Expenditures ( PCE ) prices preliminary are also due for release, expectation are for the figure to show  1.1% from 1.8% QoQ, and core PCE prices to come in unchanged  2% from previously published  2%. Monthly PCE and CPI are often used as clear indications for inflation levels in US. This data will likely cause volatility in US equity Indices and also USD currency crosses.  

Thursday 30th Aug at 1.30 US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures  – Price Index for July data is released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and it shows the average amount of money that consumers spend in a month.  The expectations are for the figure to show YoY 2.0% from 1.9%  previously.  And MoM figure to show 0.2% from 0.1% previously. This data could increase volatility in US Equities and also in USD currency crosses.

Friday 31st Aug at 10.00 am Eurozone Unemployment Rate is due to be published for the month of July. The expectations are for the rate to drop slightly to 8.2% from previously published 8.3%. Also at the same time, Consumer Price Index preliminary reading for Aug will be released.  Inflation forecast is pointing to unchanged YoY 2.1% from previously 2.1%. This data could increase volatility in European Equities and also in EUR Currency crosses.


This currency pair rebounded recently on USD weakness after less hawkish then expected Feds Powell speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. He stated that the Fed is not seeing the indication of overheating risks that US inflation is increasing above its target. Feds Chair also repeated the message of gradual rate hikes going forward.  EURUSD price is currently testing important resistance at 1.1600-1.1630 zone. Bearish sentiment prevails below that level targeting downside supports at 1.1579 followed by 1.1470 and 1.1300 levels. Alternatively confirmed breakout above the current resistance at 1.1630 and the Daily close higher would change the outlook targeting upside resistances initially at 200 DMA 1.1795 level followed by 1.1900 and 1.2000.



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The week ahead is expected to be quieter on the economic data releases front.
Any additional Brexit news could impact volatility in UK equities and GDP crosses.

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