Busy week ahead for the markets mainly impacted by Central Banks (BOJ, Fed and BOE) activity and also US Unemployment data.
Monday 30th July at 1pm German preliminary CPI data for July is due for release, expectations are for unchanged figure of 2.1% YoY from previously published 2.1%. This data will impact German Equities including Dax Index and also EUR currency crosses.
Tuesday 31st July at 3am Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement are due for release. No change is expected, any changes in their policy stance could impact volatility in Japanese Equities and also JPY currency crosses.
Tuesday 31st July at 10am Eurozone CPI figure for July, Employment figure for June and also GDP for Q2 are scheduled for release. GDP is forecasted to show 2.4% from previously published 2.5% YoY and unchanged 0.4% QoQ. CPI is estimated to show 2% YoY, unchanged from last month. Unemployment rate is forecasted to increase to 8.5% from previously published 8.4%. These figures could impact volatility in Eurozone equity indices, and also EUR currency crosses.
Wednesday 01st Aug at 7pm (FOMC) Fed rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement is due for release. No change to current 2% is expected. Markets that could react to this data release are US Equity Indices and also USD currency crosses.
Thursday 02nd Aug at 12pm Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate decision and Monetary Policy Summary are scheduled for release. Markets are forecasting an increase in interest rates to 0.75%, however due to the recent weakness in UK data the bank may decide once again to postpone this well telegraphed and expected Interest Rate increase. This data will likely impact volatility in UK Equity indices and also GBP currency crosses.
Friday 03rd Aug at 1.30pm US Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings for July are due for release. Unemployment rate is forecasted to drop to 3.9% from current 4%. Nonfarm payrolls are forecasted to come in at 195K from previously published 213K and Average hourly earnings to stay unchanged at 2.7% YoY. These figures will impact volatility in US Equity Indices and also in USD currency Crosses.
EURUSD Cappeed by resistance at 1.1740 and supported by 1.1600 levels ahead of Eurozone CPI and Employment data. Price action appears Bearish below current upside resistance at 1.1740-1.1750 zone. The initial downside support is at 1.1600 level. Confirmed loss and the daily close below could open up the way for the retest of deeper downside supports at 1.1550 followed by 1.1500 levels. Alternatively only a confirmed breakout above current resistance at 1.1740-1.1750 zone and the Daily close above would negate Bearish outlook targeting additional upside resistances at 1.1790 followed by 1.1860.
GBPUSD price action is downtrending, currently capped by 1.3200 resistance ahead of BOE rate decision. Current Bearish sentiment appears intact below 1.3200, targeting downside supports at 1.3020 followed by 1.2955 and 1.2800 levels. Alternatively only a confirmed breakout and the Daily close above 1.3200 resistance would change the outlook targeting additional upside resistances at 1.3290 followed by 1.3360-1.3400 levels.
USDJPY is uptrending, currently supported at 111.00 level. Bullish outlook appears to be supported by 111.00. If the price rebounds higher from there it would open up the way for the retest of 111.55 followed by 112.10 and 113.00 levels. Alternatively confirmed loss and the Daily close below 111.00 level would change the outlook targeting additional downside supports at 110.60 followed by 110.30 and 109.90 levels.