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WTI Crude & GBPCAD outlook
Published: 11/09/2018

The US Crude Oil market has slipped into bear territory with a 20% fall from the high set earlier this year at 7690.00. A loss of support around 6000.00 has pushed price lower with the 100 WMA at 5825.00 the next potential support area below the current price level. A loss of this moving average may put pressure on the previous support at 5800.00 area. Below this level, the 200 WMA at 5242.80 and the 5200.00 level area combining to form a zone of support which may support price. The 5000.00 round number may be the next support area underneath, with a failure to find buyers potentially opening the way for a drive to the 2017 low at 4380.00.

Resistance for the commodity can be seen at the summer 2018 low of 6348.50 and a break back above this area might suggest a move back to retest the broken trend line at 6700.00. The 50 WMA at 6600.00, stands to potentially block such a move. Resistance may extend up to 6832.25 from 6600.00 forming a large zone. A breakout of this zone may indicate a willingness to try to test 7000.00 and eventually the high at 7690.70 but fundamental factors will be needed to change the bearish sentiment before this happens.

 

The GBPCAD pair is currently trading just under 1.7200 where resistance formed in September to prevent price moving higher. The pair has been above that level last month and again this week but is finding it difficult to hold gains. A break higher would need to move above the 200 DMA around 1.7280 and the 1.7287 area to test and potentially break out above 1.7300. This may allow buyers to squeeze short positions and try to reach for 1.7500 and the lower high at 1.7774. A breakout extending past this area might attempt a move to 1.8000 or even 1.8415 in time.

Support for the pair can be seen at yesterday’s low of 1.7138 with a loss of this area potentially sending price lower to find support around 1.7100 or even 1.7000. The round number may attract attention especially with the 50 DMA turning higher just below it at 1.6986. The indicator has just crossed above the 100 DMA at 1.6961 and these levels may be used as support. Below this, the 1.6865 level might provide support ahead of the support zone from 1.6650 to the 1.6560 low from August.

 

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